The International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) has conducted an evidence-based study analyzing the potential losses Brazil would face if it were to implement a ban on fixed-odds betting and online gambling. Drawing on regulatory estimates, market forecasts, and data on suspicious betting activity, IBIA CEO Khalid Ali examines the impact such a ban would have on sports integrity, consumers, and the regulated market.
On September 25, Brazil imposed a nationwide ban on fixed-odds betting, encompassing both sports betting and online gambling—a move coming just 21 months after the country first opened its regulated betting market. The ban is currently in effect, and the Brazilian Congress is now considering whether to make it permanent.
Brazil’s regulatory framework—supported by various licenses and decrees—was designed to protect consumers, monitor betting activity, and uphold the integrity of sports. Yet, these measures have been in place for less than two years. A permanent ban threatens to undo this progress, pushing betting activity outside the scope of regulation and undermining the mechanisms established to detect and prevent match-fixing.
Consequently, we urge Congress to reconsider Provisional Measure 1394/2026, evaluate its risks and impacts based on empirical evidence, and engage in an open dialogue with the industry. It is essential to maintain collaboration between public authorities, sports organizations, and independent integrity monitoring bodies. Enforcement efforts should focus on targeting unlicensed, offshore operators to safeguard consumers, protect tax revenue, and ensure market integrity.
Brazil’s Achievements vs. The Risks of a Ban
In less than two years, Brazil has licensed over 80 operators, introduced customer identification requirements, cracked down on illegal gambling websites and payment channels, and established a centralized self-exclusion system. Crucially for the sports sector, licensed operators are required to monitor for suspicious betting patterns, report concerns, and cooperate with national or international sports integrity monitoring organizations.
An IBIA comparative assessment of regulatory frameworks awards Brazil a score of 77 out of 100—placing it between Portugal (68) and the United Kingdom (86). For such a nascent market, this represents significant progress. IBIA’s Assessment of a Potential Ban on Brazil’s Regulatory Framework (Page 3)
The value of Brazil’s regulatory framework lies in the intelligence it generates: suspicious betting patterns can be identified, assessed, and shared with regulatory bodies, sports organizations, and law enforcement. Without a well-functioning legal market, much of this intelligence would be difficult to obtain, thereby undermining the ability to detect and investigate potential match-fixing or manipulation.
A Ban Would Not Eliminate the Demand for Betting
H2 Gambling Capital, a leading industry market intelligence and data firm, estimates that in the absence of legal alternatives, approximately 60% of the betting activity currently captured by Brazil’s legal market—equivalent to roughly 25 billion BRL—could shift to unlicensed operators. Consequently, the illegal market could expand from approximately 17 billion BRL to around 42 billion BRL.
Risks of a Ban and Market Estimates by H2 Gambling Capital (Page 2)
The consequences extend far beyond the loss of tax revenue. Consumers might find themselves placing bets with operators outside of Brazil’s regulatory oversight—operators that lack the same requirements for identity verification, responsible gambling safeguards, or mandatory reporting. Meanwhile, regulators would lose access to the information that licensed operators are otherwise required to provide.
Therefore, a ban would weaken both consumer protection and the intelligence used to safeguard the integrity of sports.
Implications for Integrity
The impact on sports integrity is particularly significant. In 2025—the first year of the fully implemented regulated market—the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) recorded 25 alerts regarding suspicious betting in Brazilian sports, compared to an annual average of 11 alerts between 2021 and 2024.
This increase should not be interpreted as a decline in the safety of Brazilian sports under the new regulatory regime. Rather, it reflects improved detection and reporting mechanisms within a market where licensed operators are mandated to identify and report suspicious activity.
Excerpt from the briefing: “Suspicious Betting Alerts Reported by the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA), 2021–2025” (Page 5)
A decline in the number of alerts following the implementation of a ban would not necessarily indicate a reduction in suspicious betting activity. This may simply mean that there is less information available regarding suspicious betting.
This distinction is crucial. The number of alerts for suspicious betting is not a measure of the extent of match-fixing; rather, it reflects the activity detected and reported by monitoring systems. If betting activity shifts to operators outside the scope of regulation, the ability to identify suspicious patterns, track accounts, and share intelligence with investigators will be significantly diminished.
The danger is not merely that suspicious betting activity will persist, but that it will become increasingly difficult to detect and investigate.
Regulation—not prohibition—is the solution.
Through nearly two decades dedicated to upholding the integrity of betting, we have reached a clear conclusion: the core issue is not whether betting exists, but whether it operates legally.
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